All Under Control! - May 3, 2023

Hello All,

The May newsletter's going out early this month so I can fully concentrate on wrapping up a couple of projects that have slipped.

I’ve talked a lot about the rapid evolution of AI and had every intention of reducing content around that subject after the last letter. But there’s just so much happening I decided to wait for the reboot until next time.

Last week, a man named Geoffrey Hinton, who has been called the ‘Godfather of AI,’ confirmed that he left his role at Google to speak out about the ‘dangers’ of the technology he spent his whole career helping to develop. Obviously, Mr. Hinton is just one of a growing number of prominent voices who’ve become spooked by the rapid evolution of this technology. But someone with his gravitas disavowing any endorsement of AI’s current unpredictable evolutionary direction is a particularly ominous indicator of where this all might be headed. Like an out of control needle on an existential compass rotating with no true meridian, we find the direction of humanity spiraling into an unknown vector. One that might result in doom...or utopia.

Are We Overreacting?

But not all experts are as concerned as people like Geoffrey Hinton. So why isn’t there consensus among some of those in the technology trenches regarding the potential dangers? There seem to be several explanations. Some light was shed recently in an interview between Elon Musk and Tucker Carlson (ironically the week before he was let go from Fox News) in which Musk talked about regular conversations he used to have with Larry Paige, one of the founders of Google. According to Musk, Paige is of the opinion that whatever form of ‘consciousness’ evolves as a result of AI technology has as much right to exist as humans, regardless of the consequences and therefore needs to be unleashed.

Them's Fightin' Words, Larry

Paige even went so far as to call Musk a Speciesist, something meant as a derogatory term, as if believing in the antiquated concept that human survival takes precedent over the emergence of a new form of consciousness was unethical, the moral equivalent of slavery. Although I believe that most of us would find this view absurd, let’s not forget that Mr. Paige is one of the most brilliant men who ever walked the planet and there is little doubt that others share his view. Musk went on to say that he and Paige are no longer friends, due primarily to these fundamental disagreements around AI.

But beyond the seemingly bent philosophical realities of a man who has been insulated by enormous wealth and power for most of his adult life, there is also a monetary aspect for the corporations pursuing AI that’s resulting in a full court press to emerge as dominant. It’s fairly obvious that whoever perfects chatbot technology first will control the whole internet ‘search’ market, something currently dominated by Google. With the emergence of Open AI’s Chat-GPT iterations, Microsoft has gained a potential foothold for their previously struggling Bing search engine for the first time ever.

And this brings up an interesting point. It’s important to remember, Open AI’s original mission statement was to develop AI independently of any financial motivators in an effort to ensure the safe and responsible pursuit of what they understood would inevitably result in potentially dangerous and volatile technology. But somewhere down the road, Microsoft (no doubt still heavily influenced by Bill Gates) dangled a boat load of money in front of the founders of Open AI, convincing them to abandon that noble goal. In short, they cashed out. If anyone needed a reason to doubt that money won’t continue to win over good intentions, this is probably the precedent that reflects a realistic road map for the future.

"I can't think of anything worse than living forever"...Elon Musk

Another aspect of Silicon Valley’s reluctance to slow AI progress is the belief by some of those tech titans that this technology offers the only realistic hope in finding ways to mitigate the aging process; that through a combination of AI and gene manipulation advancements, those who have the resources may find themselves in the enviable positions of cheating death from old age. And, the clock is ticking, particularly for some of the original guard with the most resources and influence, those who were in on the ground floor of the tech industry and possessed the vast resources that allowed them to control most aspects of their lives…except their own longevity.

AI Utopia?

But there are also those with completely pure motives when it comes to resisting any efforts to throttle AI development. And, there is no doubt that unlimited potential for wonderful things exists if we can navigate the turbulent undercurrents. Advances in cures for diseases, cleaning up the environment, and elevating the quality of life for those around the world, seem like realistic possibilities if managed properly.

In order to achieve some of those goals we’ll probably have to accept the fact that there will be trade-offs and that the paradigm will shift regularly. My instinct tells me there could eventually be an iterative process leading to a time when one advanced form of AI controls the others because we humans will no longer be capable of understanding how it all works. That, taken to its logical conclusion, means at some point we would be required to simply relinquish control and hope for the best.

There is a significant movement in the tech industry consisting of those who believe we’ve already lost the ability to effectively manage civilization and that an all-wise overseer is the only hope. That concept is equally fascinating and horrifying. One thing seems obvious though; we’ll look back at this particular point in history as the inflection point. And even our most prescient predictions will probably seem naive in hindsight as everything continues to accelerate. I doubt we really even understand the right questions to ask at this point.

Just take the very basic example of social media. When Mark Zuckerberg started Facebook in his dorm room at Harvard as a way to rate the 'hotness' of campus coeds, nobody could have predicted the impact of it and its subsequent offshoots on society. I won't get into the weeds on this here, but everyone is aware of the detrimental effects social media has had, particularly on young people, some of whom have never fully developed the skills to effectively interact in person. And of course there is the issue of how social media has been weaponized and used as a venue for propaganda on all sides.

Don't Worry--Our Government's Got This

Meantime, there is finally talk in congress of regulating some of this. Problem is, many of those who are in positions to formulate and initiate ways to enforce those regulations don’t even know how to use a desktop computer, much less understand the complexities and nuances of code and algorithms.

Sure, they can come up with some voluminous document put together by paid consultants that offers a seemingly proactive effort. But at the speed with which government moves, anything developed will surely become obsolete before it’s implemented. Any legislation with real teeth would require a mechanism allowing for nimble adjustments, something that seems unlikely.

But the real elephant in the room with regard to legislating AI technology is the reality that every other country in the world is pursuing it. And not just those who view us as a threat such as Russia, China, and particularly worrisome, North Korea. Taiwan, India, Japan, Singapore, South Korea, and most of Europe have undoubtably assembled some of the best and brightest in what is shaping up to be more of a sprint than a marathon. Any regulation implemented by our government will most likely be viewed as a bonus to competing countries, all clearly aware that whoever emerges as the dominant player will shift world power in unprecedented ways.

We’ll see…

Bet AI Won't Mess With Snoop Dogg

Meantime AI has spilled over into the music industry. There was another one of those big moments last week when someone trained an AI agent to duplicate the voices of singers Drake and The Weekend to create a new song, ‘Heart on my Sleeve’ which fooled fans of both artists and became an instant hit. The ramifications are pretty clear and will open up some fascinating legal issues.

And what if we lived in a world where all music was generated by AI based on its understanding of what people found appealing? Heck, sites like Google and Amazon already know most of our preferences as well or better than we do. It doesn't take much of a leap to envision customized entertainment for individuals according to their personal preferences? It seems to me a foregone conclusion this is just around the corner. And I for one, am all for it.

But this will also be an issue with movies, television, and almost every other form of entertainment. The technology to make deep fake videos of famous celebrities (or presidents) spouting nonsense, or even featured in pornography, has been around for a while. But soon it won’t require special skills or expensive programs. Anyone with basic access to new tools will have this capability. And not just celebrities but anyone who has ever been videoed or photographed.

Discerning real from fake will eventually become impossible, something that’s already problematic. We may even see things like singing competitions between famous dead artists from the past, or new movies created with Marlon Brando or Greta Garbo in contemporary settings. And that's just the tip of the iceberg. There could even be an emergence of virtual entertainers who work for free and displace contemporary actors and musicians, making them obsolete.

Creating AI Generated Images

This week I tried a new AI image generator called MidJourney. You basically sign up for the subscription service, then create customized images based on a series of prompts you provide. The user has the ability to continue customizing these images until arriving at the desired result. The process is very user friendly. Following are some images I created based on simple prompts. Although I generally used just a few words, many on the service (you can actually see the results of other users in real time) seem to have a page full of key words in their efforts to refine the final product.

The prompts used for the images were:

Top - AI Quantum Computer

Mid - Elon Musk Conversation Android

Bottom - Cleopatra Albert Einstein Relatives - Yikes!

But the point here is that for a novice like me to generate images based on key words is a real game-changer. Sure, before you could go to a website that sells stock photos, search through the thousand already in existence and purchase the rights to use them. But with this technology you have the ability to refine images to the point they perfectly reflect how you envision them mentally. It's also a new creative outlet that's somewhat addicting.

And finally, on a more human note…

Gordon Lightfoot passed away Monday after a long and productive life. His rich baritone backed by perfectly tuned twelve-string guitars and hypnotic melodies created a unique and original sound that resonated with a generation of baby boomers and their kids. In addition to his haunting melodies, fans always got the added bonus of an elegantly woven story, usually soaked in themes of love and relationships gone south and the challenges of starting over.

There’s a popular musical expert on YouTube named Rick Beato who recently did a deep-dive into his song, ‘If You Could Read My Mind.’ For fans, I highly recommend watching this as it really highlights some of the beautiful aspects common to all of Gordon’s songs.

Whenever I hear certain songs like ‘Carefree Highway,’ I’m instantly transported to the past, driving my old Dodge Charger down the road in the early 70s, the future a blank page still yet to be written.

RIP, Sir! Thank you for creating real and impactful art that hit us all with a smooth, emotional hammer that has only gotten better over time. Well done!...

I’m on Substack now (one reason this newsletter’s going out early this month) so if you’re inclined to sign up you can follow me there. At some point I'll probably differentiate the content but for now it's basically the same posts as the newsletter. The service consists of free and paid subscriptions. There’s lots of great content from some excellent writers available on the site.

As always, please let me know your thoughts.

Best…..VB