The Apocalypse Edition - 6/30/24

Game Over

As we venture into the brave new world of AI and its ramifications, it’s worth backing up and revisiting the one existential threat that most of us have known our entire lives. The movie Oppenheimer did a great job reminding everyone about the dangers of unimaginable weapons of mass destruction and the potential consequences if not properly controlled.

But if you really want a cold, horrific look at a realistic scenario that Robert Oppenheimer probably could not have totally imagined, there’s a new book out from a well-respected author named Annie Jacobson called “Nuclear War: A Scenario." In it, she does a deep dive into what America’s response would look like in the event we were on the receiving end of first strike.

It’s as bad as we all thought. But what’s even worse, the book conveys a creepy sense of just how easily it could happen. 

Those of us who belong to the baby boom generation remember school drills where we practiced ducking under our desks as part of the preparation for such an event. After reading this book, you’ll view those memories as one more reminder of just how naive we were before an elevated awareness of the real world hammered some of the innocence of childhood out of us.

The book discusses a harrowing account from 1960 when American military officials contemplated a first strike against the Soviet Union that would have killed at least 600 million people, half from surrounding countries. At the time, military officials lauded the plan but it was blocked (luckily) by the one dissenting vote, the man who happened to be in charge, General David M. Shoup.

But the real-life nightmare is a minute-by-minute breakdown of a nuclear war scenario based on our actual defense systems' design and procedures in the event a country such as North Korea struck first. Describing such an event unfolds over many pages but suffice it to say, it’s game over in under two hours. 

Bottom Line—Five billion people would be dead in 72 minutes.

Fires in the northern hemisphere trigger nuclear winter killing plants and upending food chains. Small animals thrive while larger animals are wiped out. Most of the world experiences famine, with the exception of New Zealand and Australia. Radiation kills millions of those who survived. The ozone continues to deteriorate, forcing humans to live underground while insects and plague spread from thawing corpses above. 

The estimated recovery time for Earth is 24,000 years. 

As we lurch through this chaotic Presidential election period, it’s important to remember your candidate of choice will ultimately inherit access to our nuclear codes—and the man who currently controls them has trouble completing a sentence.

And that leads us to another related topic…

Billionaire Bunker Club

Forget yachts. There’s a new status symbol emerging among the upper 1% club—Survival bunkers, although in some cases the word “bunker” might not fully convey the level of luxury some of these underground mansions offer. Everyone from Mark Zuckerberg to Sam Altman, to Peter Thiel. If you’ve heard their name associated with great wealth, you can be assured they’re preparing for the end of the world. 

Do they know something the rest of us don’t? Or maybe they’ve just run out of toys. Either way, great amounts of effort and money are being thrown at ensuring there’s a place to hide when the s**t hits the fan.

Most have chosen New Zealand (see article above) while others have opted for Hawaii or secluded areas in the Rocky Mountains. Regardless, I would think the window of opportunity would be fairly tight for accessing these places, particularly in the nuclear scenario I just described. Bill Gates apparently has bunkers below all of his homes so that might be the option offering the best odds.

I did quite a bit of research on this several years ago when I wrote “The Last Perfect Dawn.” But since then, the industry has exploded, particularly among the wealthiest.

The most spectacular project, due to be completed in 2025, is an island fortress created on a 200-acre property in the U.S., with cutting-edge tactical systems. According to its builder, the shelter can withstand a blast one mile from ground zero. It will also include a 30-foot-deep lake around the compound skimmed with a lighter-than-water flammable liquid that can transform into a ring of fire.

The only access to the island is a swing bridge.

Also, there are water cannons that can take down parachuters, Apache helicopters, whatever’s coming your way 500 feet in the air.

They then plan to use all the dirt removed for the lake to literally build a mountain as natural fortification around the property. An access tunnel will be cut through, protected with flame-throwers, gassing systems, a steel wall that closes midway that could stop an 18-wheeler going 80 miles an hour, and bollards at both ends.

But if the worst case scenario does happen—somehow the owners and staff are able to access them before the AIs decide to wipe out humanity, or they survive the nukes, just what happens in the aftermath?

In the majority of cases, the “protected” will require hired “protectors” regardless of how deep their bunkers are buried. And that hierarchical order will be tenuous at best, particularly if inhabiting their modern-day castles is permanent.

How do the dynamics of human survival play out in a world where money has no value? One where the people with real authority are those with the physical power to control the others, meaning probably the ones holding the weapons. This was one of the themes I tried to explore in “Last Perfect Dawn.”  

Prediction—China Invades Taiwan Before November 

A military expert by the name of Dmitri Alperovich estimates that if China does, in fact, move to invade Taiwan, it will gain control within thirty minutes. Previously, Alperovich predicted Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. His thesis is that China could basically surround the tiny nation with warships parked in international waters but in close proximity while invading by air in under fifteen minutes.

I’ve written about this issue in the past so won’t go over the history but China has made its intention to retake Taiwan clear. The U.S. has always been its main deterrent. I believe President Xi Jinping may sense a window of opportunity as our presidential power is in an uncertain transition phase.

This will result in some impactful consequences, not the least of which will be to the advanced chip market, along with a potential war with China. Some of the biggest tech companies would see their stocks plummet overnight.

Hope I’m wrong on this…