The Fragility of Life - 11/30/23

Our existence - a perspective One of the upsides of researching scientific facts for books is the fascinating thought experiments that inevitably result. Consider this: As best we can calculate, Earth has existed for around 4-1/2 billion years. Human civilization, as measured from the first writings (you have to base the starting point on something), is only 5,000 years old. That’s one millionth Earth’s age, basically hardly a blink of an eye. We know the sun is expanding and that at some point it will overheat. That’s not a guess, but an inevitable fact. The best estimates are it will happen in around 1/2 billion years—a long time by human standards but not in the total scope of the planet. So if you assume a total lifespan for Earth of 5 billion years, human civilization didn’t form until what would be considered close to the end. That means 90% of the Earth’s total lifespan was over by the time we showed up. Ask yourself why? Why so late? Now we all know that the subject of our creation can be contentious—those with deep religious faith will differ from others who follow the evolutionary view. Evolutionists believe it all started with archaic bacteria floating in some boiling mineral sea, progressed through multi-cellular life, differentiation of plants and animals, and then the mobilization from the ocean to land. And, at some point, conscious humans existed, learned how to communicate, and wrote things down. Others believe the human race is the result of the Bible’s literal translation of Adam and Eve. That God created us at the same time as the universe, as He did with everything else. There are plenty of highly educated biological chemists who will tell you that due to the complexity of our human bodies, the idea that we’re the result of some evolutionary accident is less likely than a 747 airliner forming from bacteria in a swamp. Whether you believe in the natural progression of biological evolution or that God created us all, completely formed, I doubt most people who’ve formed an opinion one way or the other will be convinced by any new argument. Personally, I don’t see the two as necessarily mutually exclusive. But that’s not my point. Think about our timeline again. Now consider the fact that had human civilization started to form just 10% later, it wouldn’t have formed at all. In 500,000 years, Earth will resemble Venus more than the planet we ride through space on today. Life will become unsustainable much sooner. And that’s assuming we make it for a 1/2 billion more years without destroying ourselves or are hit by another asteroid, or an incurable virus wipes out all life on the planet. In other words, we cut it pretty close if you consider the larger picture, yet another miracle of our very existence. Excuse me, ma’am…Have you seen an F-35 flying around the neighborhood?

There was a wild story a few weeks ago about an F-35 fighter jet whose pilot ejected due to reasons that aren’t clear. Apparently, the spooked skipper made the decision after the jet’s controls weren’t responding. In other words, the AI that runs it either went rogue or malfunctioned. The plane kept flying until it finally ran out of fuel. But apparently, its stealth systems worked a little too well and it took Air Force officials hours to track it, finally finding its debris in a field north of Charleston. The next day, an explanation was released stating the event had been caused by bad weather (haha!), never providing a more believable scenario. Lockheed Martin describes the F-35 series as the most lethal fighter jet in the world. And the real eye-opener here for me is the all-too-familiar theme of humans losing control of complex AI systems integrated with powerful weapons. And what would have happened had this been a passenger jet? A self-driving car? It seems fairly clear we’ll never get the actual details. But hopefully, this wasn’t some kind of hack. As a result of the event, the Air Force implemented a stand-down of all its fighter jets utilizing similar technology. Thank you, Russia, China, and North Korea for not attacking while we (hopefully) got all this sorted out… Speaking of hacks - here’s one straight out of a movie

MGM Resorts, which owns the Mandalay Bay and the Bellagio, as well as others was hacked in an epic take-down and its systems basically held hostage while the hackers demanded a ransom. The company resisted and eventually contained the problem, but is estimated to have lost around $100 million due to the fact it had to shut down in an effort to protect customers’ private information. Caesars was also hit and is believed to have paid the ransom, although as far as I can tell that hasn’t been confirmed. Either way, it seems inevitable that these types of events will be repeated. Cyber security has always been a big business, but the stocks of several have been increasing proportionately to the escalating risks.

The strange case of Sam Bankman-Fried You’ve probably read about Sam’s trial for fraud, accused of stealing about $10 billion of customers’ deposits. The short synopsis is that he, along with some MIT buddies, started their own crypto exchange (FTX), basically a venue where customers could store, buy, and sell cryptocurrencies. Each transaction resulted in a commission, something that turned into a booming business that made Sam and his partners billionaires. He and the others bought a mansion in the Bahamas where they established FTX’s base, and the merriment commenced. But things turned south when he started another business, Alameda Capital, basically an investment firm that underperformed right from the start. In an effort to cover the Alameda losses, Sam authorized the transfer of FTX customer funds into Alameda’s account, eventually resulting in the relatively quick incineration of $10 billion, funds it couldn’t cover once customers heard the rumors and a run on FTX commenced. The trial just ended and he was found guilty, now facing a potential 110-year life sentence. He’s only 31 years old. And as if fate had stepped in as only fate can, the famous financial writer, Michael Lewis, had just concluded a biography of SBF, something he’d been working on for years. Now this isn’t the first time someone relatively young started a successful company that imploded in a magnificent fashion. Theranos and Elizabeth Holmes come to mind. But there is something very disturbing regarding Sam’s ultimate intentions. He apparently sees himself as an altruist, focused only on what’s good for humanity. Problem is, he was distributing that pilfered money like candy on Halloween to various politicians and causes he deemed conducive to his noble goals—and most were decidedly far left on the political spectrum. Flying to meetings on his private jet, SBF became well known within the hallowed halls of Congress as a deep-pocketed donor and a dependable financial source. But perhaps the most disturbing part of all, according to Lewis’ book, and aside from the poor folks who lost billions of dollars, was this: Apparently SBF planned to offer Donald Trump $5 billion not to run for reelection. That’s a whole lot more than Trump’s current estimated net worth. And, I have a sneaking suspicion he might have taken it if the offer had come to fruition. We will never know, nor would we have ever found out if it had happened. And here again, is one of the dangers we face where young whiz-kids without much life experience can find themselves in positions of immense power. There’s a potential scenario where SBF could have impacted the world in unfathomable ways. Regardless of what you think of Donald Trump, I’m pretty sure most people would agree we don’t need rich math geniuses deciding who runs for the most powerful office in the world. The Middle East - Violence on an unfathomable scale I’ve struggled with how to address this. A newsletter certainly is not the venue to discuss the horrific events happening now in Israel and Gaza, but I’d be remiss in not acknowledging what has happened. The complexity of the Middle East is impossible to summarize and anyone who’s been around a while understands that this tragic situation has existed for thousands of years. The idea that it continues today is hard to accept. I have very strong opinions on all this and will be glad to interact with anyone who wants to discuss. I will simply say that vicious attacks by terrorists on innocents are abominable and a reminder that real evil exists in the world. Ultimately, those innocents caught in the middle comprise the majority of the victims…on both sides of the conflict.